When USD Falls

USD/JPY has gone high during the last 4 days. And it looks like the time for profit taking is not far away. To understand when to wait for it, we need to understand the key drivers for the pair at the moment.

First, Treasury yields keep rising and pushing USD higher, and we need just watch the trend. Second, Trump promises. Now we have second round of hopes, corporate tax reduction that business has been waiting for so long. But as usual, it’s just words.

Additional details of the future bill are planned for announcement on September, 25th. And it sound familiar. Somewhere in early January Trump announced of new reforms, then announced of the time of the detailed plan, and then just forgot about all that.

The conclusion, we need to wait till market optimism fades away, and everybody understands that there is a long way between the words and deeds.

Most likely, USD/JPY profit taking will start by the end of Friday. Especially if the scheduled for today CPI and scheduled for tomorrow retail sales reports prove to be worse than expected.

The nearest target for USD/JPY is at 109.70.

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