USD Stays Soft As Market Prices In March Rate Hike

The USD was seen trading weaker across the board on Thursday. The biggest gains came from the Japanese yen which surged 0.82% on the day.

Economic data from the U.S. was mixed. Producer price index data from the U.S. showed a 0.4% increase matching estimates and rising to an annual pace of 2.7%. Industrial production figures showed a 0.1% decline in January with previous month’s data being revised lower as well.

The capacity utilization rate slipped to 77.5%. The regional manufacturing index data showed that the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 25.8 beating estimates while the NY Fed manufacturing index eased from 17.7 in the previous month to 13.1 in February.

Looking ahead, the retail sales data from the UK is expected to show a 0.5% increase after falling 1.5% the month before. The data comes amid UK households facing faster inflation and slower wage growth. Data from the U.S. today will see the housing starts and building permits data coming out.

EUR/USD intra-day analysis

EUR/USD H4 Chart

EUR/USD (1.2541): The EUR/USD maintained the gains yesterday as price rallied to a fresh 3 year higher earlier today. The gains in the euro came as the U.S. dollar failed to hold on the gains giving a lift to the common currency. With the strong gains, any downside correction could be limited to the 1.2365 level which previously served as resistance. A retest of support at this level could signal a potential rebound with the upside bias intact.

GBP/USD intra-day analysis

GBP/USD H4 Chart

GBP/USD (1.4134): The British pound managed to push higher with price breaking out from the upside. The breakout from the resistance level at 1.4037 could indicate further upside gains in the currency pair. Watch for a short term correction towards 1.4037 for support to be established. This could potentially see further gains targeting the previous highs around 1.4279. To the downside, the declines will be limited to the support level but a break down below this level could keep GBPUSD range bound in the short term.

NZD/USD intra-day analysis

NZD/USD H4 Chart

NZD/USD (0.7420): The New Zealand dollar is seen testing the highs around 0.7420 level, marking the highs established from two weeks ago. The reversal in the price action suggests upside momentum with the U.S. dollar continuing to remain weak. Watch for a retest of support near the 0.7333 region which served as resistance. To the upside, NZDUSD could be targeting 0.7480 level where the next main resistance level will be tested.

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