USD/CHF And GBP/USD For December 26, 2018

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9818; (P) 0.9855; (R1) 0.9909;

At this point, we’d still expect strong support from 0.9848 to contain downside to complete the correction from 1.0128. On the upside, break of 0.9989 resistance will argue that such correction is completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0128 high. However, decisive break of 0.9848 support will bring deeper decline to 0.9541 key support instead.


In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the medium term rally from 0.9186 hasn’t completed yet. Break of 1.0128 will target 1.0342 key resistance next (2016 high). On the downside, firm break of 0.9848 support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.9541 key support instead.


GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2615; (P) 1.2696; (R1) 1.2758;

No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as consolidation from 1.2476 is still in progress. Upside should be limited by 1.2811 resistance to bring decline resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2476 will extend larger down trend from 1.4376 to 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2661 from 1.3174 at 1.2114. However, firm break of 1.2811 will be an early signal of trend reversal and turn focus back to 1.3174 resistance.


In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should now target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view.


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