Trading The U.S. ADP NFP Employment Change Release, July 7, 2016

US ADP NFP Employment Change is a preview to the all famous Nonfarm Payroll Report on Friday, as both releases are closely correlated. If we get a strong release today, we should expect the same to follow on Friday, thus market sentiment and short-term momentum could be influenced, thus making this release a prime opportunity to trade…

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 151K Previous 173K Deviation: 50K (BUY USD 201K / SELL USD 101K)

The Trade PlanI usually don’t trade this release but I use it for future trend references. However, if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, the market probably won’t have a problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for the NFP release; therefore its best to be around your computer during the release time rather than find out what happened hours later and potentially miss the entire movement.

With the above being said, we’ll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 201K or better release, I’d be looking to BUY USD against the weakest currency based on the strength meter; if we get a 101K or worse, then I’d be looking to SELL USD against the strongest currency based on the meter…

In the event that we do get our deviation, we’ll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method.

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs above as they are based on my CSM and should give you the best combination of currencies to trade in the event of a better/worse news… of course, you can always trade the default pair for this release: EUR/USD.

Outlook Score Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

Definition: ADP Employment report was developed and is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous subset of roughly 500,000 U.S. business clients. During 2011, this subset averaged about 344,000 U.S. business clients and represented over 21 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The ADP NFP report is a monthly estimate of private nonfarm employment among companies in the United States with 1-49 employees and is a subset of the ADP National Employment Report. The data for both reports is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP’s total base of U.S. business clients. (Taken from official…)

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