Thursday’s FX Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Weekly Trend: Bullish 1st Resistance: 1.1303 2nd Resistance: 1.1340 3rd Resistance: 1.1385 1st Support: 1.1205 2nd Support: 1.1115 3rd Support: 1.1027

EUR

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany), better than expected. Setting a new high from May 2014

28th of July, better than expected.

29th of July, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe), higher than expected. Setting a new high since last February.

18th of August, European CPI confirmed at 0.2% as expected and as per previous month.

23rd of August, German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Composite PMI: they measure the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector in Europe.

Contrasted: Markit Eurozone PMI inched up to a seven-month high, while Manufacturing PMI and German Services PMI slow down in August.

31st of August, European CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe), slightly lower than expected.

1st of August, Eurozone Manufacturing PM, slightly worse than expected.

8th of August, European Central Bank’s President (Mario Draghi) left all interest rates unchanged.

USD

Recent Facts:

21st of July 2016, Existing Home Sales, better than expected. Setting a new high since August 2015, which was the highest value of the last 6 years.

29th of July, Gross Domestic Product QoQ (preliminary), worse than expected. Actual = +1.2% Expectations were at +2.6%

12th of August, U.S. Retail Sales (essential for a better understanding of the Fed’s future interest rates policies), worse than expected.

16th of August, Building Permits, worse than expected.

17th of August, FOMC Meeting Minutes (U.S.A.) Economists see the December meeting as the most likely time for a rate increase since it follows the U.S. presidential election.

23rd of August, U.S. New Home Sales: it measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. Better than expected. Setting a new high since December 2007.

25th of August, U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items). Better than expected.

26th of August, U.S. Yellen’s (Fed Chair) Speech. Fed’s Yellen says case for another interest-rate hike has strengthened but eyes on the next data from U.S.

31st of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales, Both better than expected.

2nd of August, Nonfarm Payrolls, worse than expected.

6th of August, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI, worse than expected: down to 51.4 in August, lowest in 6 years.

Eyes on today’s release: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Weekly Trend: Neutral 1st Resistance: 1.3325 2nd Resistance: 1.3542 1st Support: 1.3220 2nd Support: 1.3080 3rd Support: 1.2885

GBP

Recent Facts:

22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector). Worse than expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years.

27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary), better than expected.

4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut), Bank of England lowers interest rates as expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program.

9th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers). Slightly worse than expected.

9th of August, Trade Balance, worse than expected. Setting a new historical low.

16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation). Higher than expected. Setting a new high since January 2015.

18th of August, UK Retail Sales, better than expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015.

1st of August, UK Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector), better than expected. Setting a new historical high since December 2015.

5th of August, UK Services PMI, better than expected.

Eyes on today release: UK Retail Sales and Bank of England Interest Rate Decision Meeting

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Weekly Trend: Oversold 1st Resistance: 0.7525 2nd Resistance: 0.7702 3rd Resistance: 0.7828 1st Support: 0.7420 2nd Support: 0.7201

AUD

Recent Facts:

19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting. Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote.

26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared.

2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as expected.

4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun), worse than expected.

11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement, interest rates cut (to 2%) as expected.

18th of August, Employment Change, better than expected. Highest since the beginning of this year.

24th of August, New Zealand Trade Balance and Australia’s Construction Work Done (it measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects), worse than expected.

1st of September, Retail Sales and Private New Capital Expenditure, worse than expected.

7th of August, Australia Gross Domestic Product, as expected.

15th of August, Employment Change, worse than expected.

USD

Recent Facts:

See above.

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