This Safe-Haven Currency Pair Is Getting Clobbered

With all the talk of today's Brexit deal, USD/CHF has quietly been getting hit today, down 0.5% and breaking down through some major support levels. Although the US Dollar Index got hit when the deal was announced, USD/CHF has been selling off since Wednesday, when the pair failed to take out the all-important psychological 1.0000 level.

USD/CHF has been in an uptrend since putting in lows on August 13. The pair retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the high on April 26 to the previously mentioned lows. However it failed to close above those levels at 1.0017 and for that matter, the 1.0000 level as well. On Thursday, the pair not only broke through the bottom trendline of the rising channel at .9950, but also took out prior lows and horizontal support near .9900.


Source: Tradingview,

On a 240-minute time frame, USD/CHF has broken lower out of a rising wedge and, for the moment, has held the 38.2% retracement from the lows of August 13 to the highs from October 3 at .9888. The target for a rising wedge is a 100% of the move higher, which is near .9660. Note that RSI is moving into oversold territory, however it is still pointing lower.

4-Hour USD/CHF

Source: Tradingview,

If we look at the short term 60-minute timeframe, USD/CHF took out the .9905 horizontal support and the RSI is below 20. First resistance now comes in at that .9905 level. Above that, resistance comes in at the rising trendline (on all timeframes) and horizontal resistance at .9960 and then the all-important psychological level of 1.0000. A close about that level may bring bulls back into the market. Next support level is the 50% retracement level from the 240-minute chart at .9844, which is also horizontal support.

60-Minute USD/CHF

Source: Tradingview,

As a point of reference, USD/CHF's Average True Range on a daily timeframe is 57 pips. (see indicator at bottom of daily chart). This means that the pair moved in an average trading range (high to low) over the last 14 days of roughly 57 pips. Today’s range is 67 pips as of the time of writing and down 64 pips on the day. This indicates there may be a bounce in the short-term.

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