Risk On Dictates FX Market As Cross JPY Drives Higher

EUR/USD short squeeze presses USD index lower – just below 100.50. GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD all modest gainers vs the greenback.

A familiar scenario seen in the wake of the Italian referendum vote, where constitutional changes were soundly rejected. Asia’s response was to sell risk, but all this has served to do is to afford better in rates in the traditional risk pairings, while the EUR also rebounded firmly to see 1.0700 breached after 1.0500 was tested and held overnight. EUR/JPY was the primary mover, and after hitting lows just under 119.00, we have since gone on to take out key resistance at 1220.00-15 with 123.50-124.00 now targeted.

This is all on the premise that stocks keep moving higher, with strong gains in early Europe mirrored on Wall Street – the lead S&P 500 up around 14-15 pts. This sees strong gains in all the JPY crosses as a result, with GBP now on a 146.00 handle, AUD the mid 85.00’s and NZD through 81.00. CAD/JPY is now in the mid 86.00’s, but some key levels coming up in all cases.

In the UK, the Supreme Court hearing gets under way, but few nerves concerning GBP as Cable continues to press for the previous lows up at 1.2798 – 1.2743 seen so far. EUR/GBP has also recovered, but given the political concerns over Europe, we suspect the pound will eventually win out in this one – gaining on the EUR/USD rise alone.

This came in the face of some strong US data as non manufacturing PMIs beat expectations convincingly at 57.2 for Nov. Similarly in the UK, the services PMIs came in better than expected also, printing 55.2 vs 54.6 expected. Fed speakers continue to fuel the rate hawks, but UST yields are showing some exhaustion on the upside, and this is selectively telling in some of the spot rates. EUR/USD and Cable we have already mentioned, while USD/JPY continues to eye 115.00, but AUD, NZD and CAD all gained against the greenback today with the USD index pressed below 100.50 as a result.

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