Ongoing Rise In U.S. Yields

There is only one story in town and that is the ongoing rise in US yields, driving the USD higher against the JPY, EUR and CHF, with GBP and CAD also pressured again to a lesser degree while AUD and NZD get some cushioning from their respective yields also. For USD/JPY, 110.00 looks to be the immediate target, but along with the straight-line move seen in EUR/USD, dealers are wary of a pullback, which becomes potentially evermore severe the higher up we push.

Key levels in EUR/USD coming in just below the 1.0650, and this is looking increasingly vulnerable as late day sales target 1.0700 initially. USD/CHF has now tipped parity, as the USD index has reclaimed 100.00 and any dips in either case will be seen as a buying opportunity for higher levels to come. Added pressure on the EUR as the Italian referendum threatens further instability as populism continues to spread globally.

Losses in EUR/CHF are assumed to have been contained by official intervention but we are struggling to break significantly higher from 1.0700 while a traditionally resilient EUR/GBP rate is now being continually pressed into the recent lows. This is partly down to the GBP revival, which many will argue is long overdue despite the Article 50 trigger next year. Dip buyers in Cable from the mid 1.2400’s, but we may well be tested all the way through to the mid 1.2300’s unless the USD bid is relaxed.

In the commodity currencies, USD/CAD has tested 1.3600 but held, coinciding with WTI losses slowing and anticipated support into the low $40.0’s. AUD has been a little more stable through the day, having found some support ahead of .7500 – but watching iron ore and copper from here. NZD sales on the back of the earthquake hitting the South Islands looks to have abated below .7100, with yield levels also proving supportive as stock market sentiment remains buoyant.

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