New Lows Ahead For USD

The weekly chart of U.S. Dollar Index calls for another new low as noted in the short-term charts, before any corrective rally. 2002-2008 price action was a clear impulsive wave down while this decade’s action can be labeled thus far as an A-B-C up, retracing exactly 61.8% of the decline.

Weekly USD

Judging by the daily price action, we are currently trading in a 4th wave which may be targeting $95.2 before the downtrend resumes. Invalidation for this scenario is a break above $100, which coincides with the bottom of wave 1. EMA 34 is now support, thus the best case scenario would be a retest of the middle band of BB and another leg higher towards $95.2 in order to complete a (C) or (Y) wave of (iv).

Daily USD

In the short term I am looking at two possible scenarios as illustrated in the chart below. A break of $93.65 will initiate either wave (a) or impulsive (1) down.

Hourly USD

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