Markets Digest A Trump Victory

The FX, equity and bond markets were volatile yesterday with a risk off sentiment prevailing on the news of a Trump victory. However, after the initial euphoria faded, the US equity markets in particular pared losses to close the day with gains.

As the US election dust settles, the main question on traders’ minds is the prospects of rate hike in December. On the economic front, the economic calendar is fairly quiet with only the weekly jobless claims coming up later today.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD (1.0941) was volatile yesterday and by the closing period, the euro was on its way to post a decline. Price closed at 1.0909 but the price action shows a higher low being formed here. A bounce to the upside could signal another attempt to breakout higher. Reistance at 1.1143 – 1.1100 will be likely challenged once again. Alternately, a break down below 1.10900 support could however trigger further declines in EUR/USD with price likely to follow through to the downside towards 1.0600. On the daily chart, the current higher low is being validated by a higher low in the stochastics, but with a bullish pergence that confirms the potential for a retest back to 1.1100 – 1.1143.

GBP/USD Daily Analysis

GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart

GBP/USD (1.2425) has been trading sideways near the 1.2500 – 1.2400 price levels. However, the British pound could be seen posting a short term decline towards 1.2250 – 1.2245 support level which is also confirmed by the bearish pergence on the stochastics oscillator. In the near term, GBP/USD could remain range bound above 1.2400, but as long as 1.2500 resistance is not challenged, the bias remains to the downside. Look for a break down below 1.2400 which will confirm the breakdown towards 1.2250.

NZD/USD Daily Analysis

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZD/USD (0.7260) fell sharply yesterday, but only after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps. The kiwi fell to 0.7300 – 0.7325 minor support level which is likely to offer a short term support. A break down below this level will put the kiwi dollar on course for further declines with the right shoulder, of the head and shoulders pattern being established. Below 0.7300 – 0.7325, the next support which will be challenged will be the neckline support around 0.7100 region. Expect further declines down to 0.6900 on a break down below the neckline support. Alternately, if price posts a reversal at the minor support level, the recent high near 0.7360 could be challenged and puts the head and shoulders pattern at risk of invalidation.

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