I was a little spooked by GBP/USD yesterday, the jolly little British beggar, as it suddenly took to flight and outstripped the rest of the group to approach the lower target area I have been eying for some while. However, it has only reached a half way stage in the more distant target.
Even USD/CHF exceeded the 0.9862 high – so I had a restless night wondering whether I had messed up the structure. Slow-forward to my habitual tumble out of bed in the middle of the night to start the analysis and I found a rather satisfying outlook across all pairs.
It actually generated some likely correlated outcome for all pairs – perhaps a small doubt in USD/CHF – but suggests a steady outlook overall. The additional point is that if one pair fails in the outlook, then they all fail.
But it’s the Non Farm Payroll lottery today. That should sort the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys and the hairy bear from the snorting bull…
We’ve also come to points in all pairs where they can – conveniently – consolidate. The biggest issue I have is just where the consolidation range will stall. There’s never an easy approach to the actual release – well except one time in EURU/SD where I had forecast a Wave (iii) and Wave (iv) two weeks prior for a 14.6% retracement.
Amazingly it worked like a dream. However, today is not a Wave (iv) (which is generally fairly easy to identify) but – for the most part – a Wave (b) that can stall almost anywhere in the entire range.
But, at the end of the day – well, in Tokyo at least when the NFP is announced – we should be able to place some boundaries to the pullback – or just direct resumption of the trend… Of all pairs, it’s probably GBP/USD that has the clearer target area than all the others although USD/CHF has a similar outcome. Thus, watch out for those areas.