GBP/USD Losses Ahead, Though 1.3055-65 Still Possible


GBP/USD 60-Min Chart

BIAS: My preference is for losses, although the 1.3055-65 area is still a vague possibility first

Resistance: 1.2951 1.2969-82 1.3017 1.3047Support: 1.2924 1.2905 1.2879 1.2854-67

MAIN ANALYSIS: Friday was a normal NFP day – broad swings. Friday’s high at 1.3017 can be considered a deep enough pullback that would satisfy alternation if we see a direct 5-wave decline to around 1.2770-91 approx. This will still be a broad swinging move, initially down to 1.2854-67 for a pullback of around 20 points (+/-) and then a new low – maybe around 1.2840-50.

This should see a modestly deep pullback – I’d estimate between 1.2935 – 55 (again +/-) from where losses need to break below 1.2840 and down to 1.2813. Here we shall need a correction of around 50-55 points followed by losses to below 1.2791, but I suspect only marginally around 1.2760-91. This should prompt a correction higher.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a direct break above 1.3017 would revert back to a push to 1.3055-65. This should then cap for losses to 1.2760-91 for that deep pullback. Only a direct break above 1.3075 would surprise and suggest the deeper pullback.

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