FX Markets Show No USD Conviction

Picking bottoms on the US dollar is an exercise in futility, even more so after the washout in near-term currency ranges that transpired this week

Indeed, a risk-off point of view continued to influence the market structure overnight with global interest rates rallying; traders becoming increasingly long on theory but short on execution when it came to rationalizing a flatter the US yield curve

The Euro

To be honest, there are few plausible explanations as to why EUR/USD got paid at 1.1859 overnight other than when risk-off mode permeates, and with few EU politic fissures hitting the headlines; the euro performs admirably as a funding currency.

But other than the than the EUR ramp, the markets have become little more than a pin the tail on the donkey exercise, and despite lower lows and lower highs on the USD this week, there are signs an intransigent greenback is getting ready to stare down the bears. (Forever the eternal USD bull.)

Japanese Yen

The yen‘s break of 113 was nowhere near as severe as anticipated. But with the Nikkei on a massive losing streak from this point forward, it should be a risk-off storyline given that the Tokyo sell-off was the core driver behind this week’s move.

The Australian Dollar

With a mere 25 bps priced in the 2018 rates curve and the RBA downgrading their inflation trajectory, is there any better signal to sell the AUD?

Weak wages are not a new theme in Australia but yesterday’s data all but reinforced the notion that things are likely to get worse

The AUD employment figures have sparked a small short-covering move on the revisions, but with traders in a fade mode, the AUD/USD is unlikely to challenge.7625

Employment change was +3.7k vs 18.8k expected. However looking at the details, part-time employment fell -20.7k, undermining the +24.3k in full-time jobs. As a consequence, the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged lower to 5.4%.

The initial decision was AUD lower on the headline, but the currency has since recovered.

EM Asia FX

The long end of the US rates curve is driving sentiment. After yesterday’s USD regional meltdown where USDKRW plunged below the 1110 support level and USDPHP broke through 51.00, I think it’s safe to say investors like Asian currencies despite the sell-off in regional equities. OK, so that’s a massive break in logic but price action must be respected.

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