EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD close at 1.2308 is located 2 pips above its next break point at 1.2306 but below the distribution at 1.2315. At 1.2315 is up 4 pips from 1.2311 last week and 1.2310 on Feb 23rd. Not only must 1.2315 resistance break to travel higher but must include the constant over 3 weeks at 1.2358.

The averages below remain far too high to inform a continued drop on the way over time. At last week’s daily view, EUR/USD was positioned at near perfect neutrality and the neutrality from last week referred to a higher EUR/USD became overbought and then lower resulting in being oversold but overall movements will trade steady without dramatic spikes.

The Draghi jump Thursday at 1.2445 was actually 128 pips from last week’s close at 1.2317 and under performed as 1.2459 was the target upon a break of 1.2436. Overall EUR/USD for the week performed as expected.

EUR/USD’s daily view this week is positioned below neutrality to inform a correction higher is on the way. The main break point below is located at 1.2196, up 26 pips from last week’s 1.2160 and the extremes to 1.2196 above is located at 1.2733 to again reveal the elusive 1.2800’s will remain a non event and won’t break anytime soon.

Higher for EUR/USD means breaks at 1.2315, 1.2358, 1.2410, 1.2510, 1.2533 and 1.2665. The overall points to watch are 1.2358 and 1.2375 as 1.2375 represents top of the 1.2196 range.

The larger 513 pip EUR/USD range is positioned from 1.2828 to 1.1802 to inform how vital is the 5 year average at 1.1965 but further to reveal 513 pips is down 5 pips from last week and 7 pips from 2 weeks ago.

Range compression means a showdown is on the way from vital breaks at the 5 and 10 year averages from 1.1965 and 1.2823. At 1.1965 is protected by not only 1.2196 but 1.2168, 1.2146 and 1.2113.

Below are averages dated to 1999

80 day = 1.2113Special average = 1.2196334 = 1.1374592 = 1.1253847 = 1.12611102 = 1.17641279 = 5y = 1.19651357 = 1.20351613 = 1.21681872 = 1.24102129 = 1.25332384 = 1.26652562 = 10y = 1.28232640 = 1.28802894 = 1.29373150 = 1.28933409 = 1.28733589 = 14 y = 1.28413665 = 1.28323921 = 1.27184175 = 1.25104429 = 1.23064686 = 1.21464914 = 1.2091

Brian Twomey

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