EUR/USD – Euro Stops Slide As GDP Matches Estimate, Fed Up Next

EUR/USD has stemmed this week’s losses in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1999, up 0.05% on the day. On the release front, German and eurozone manufacturing reports were within expectations and continued to point to expansion. Preliminary Flash GDP came in at 0.4%, but matched the estimate. In the US, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to slide to 200 thousand. As well, the Federal Reserve will set the benchmark interest rate.

On the manufacturing front, German and eurozone PMI reports softened in March, but still met expectations. However, there is concern as both indicators dropped for a fourth straight month. The markets are hoping that after a sluggish first quarter, eurozone data in Q2 will improve in the second quarter.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which will release a rate statement on Wednesday. Policymakers are expected to maintain the benchmark rate at a range between 1.50% and 1.75%, and analysts will be keeping a close eye on the rate statement for clues about future rate hikes. Although the Fed is currently projecting three rate hikes in 2018, there is growing sentiment that the Fed will bump this up to four increases. The Fed last raised rates in March, and some analysts see the Fed raising rates once each quarter – in June, September and December. Higher inflation has raised speculation that the Fed will consider raising its rate hike forecast. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, hit the Fed’s target of 2% inflation for the first time in a year in March.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (May 2)

  • 3:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.2. Actual 54.4
  • 3:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.4. Actual 53.5
  • 3:50 French Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.4. Actual 53.8
  • 3:55 German Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.1. Actual 58.1
  • 4:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.0. Actual 56.2
  • 4:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 10.9%. Actual 11.0%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 5:00 Italian Preliminary Flash GDP. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 8.5%. Actual 8.5%
  • 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 200K
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.0M
  • 11:30 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 14:00 US FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <1.75%

Thursday (May 3)

  • 5:00 Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 1.3%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Core Flash Estimate. Estimate 0.9%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 225K
  • 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.1

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, May 2, 2018

EUR/USD for May 1 – 3, 2018

EUR/USD for May 2 at 4:30 DST

Open: 1.1993 High: 1.2032 Low: 1.1988 Close: 1.1999

EUR/USD Technical


EUR/USD has posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions

  • 1.2025 is under pressure in support. It could break in the Wednesday session
  • 1.2092 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2025, 1.1915 and 1.1809
  • Above: 1.2092, 1.2235, 1.2319 and 1.2460
  • Current range: 1.2025 to 1.2092

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio has shown limited movement this week. Currently, short and long positions are evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards EUR/USD.

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