The euro has posted slight gains on Tuesday, as EUR/USD trades at the 1.12 level. On the release front, there was positive news from Eurozone releases, as Eurozone PPI and Spanish Unemployment Change both beat expectations. In the US, today’s major event is Personal Spending, with the estimate standing at 0.3%. On Thursday, the US releases two key events – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.
The euro is on an impressive run, gaining some 300 points since July 27. The pair is trading at the 1.12 line, its highest level since the Brexit vote in late June. There was some good news on the inflation front, as Eurozone PPI posted a respectable gain of 0.7%, edging above the forecast of 0.6%. This marked the highest monthly gain since October 2012, and follows a CPI reading of 0.2%, which beat expectations.
Is inflation on the rise? If so, there will be less pressure on the ECB to adopt easing measures in order to stimulate the economy and raise inflation levels, which have languished near the zero level or lower.
Meanwhile, there were no surprises from key Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs, as the market estimates were on the money. German and Eurozone releases pointed to slight expansion, but the French reading of 48.5 indicated contraction. We’ll get a look at German Factory Reports on Friday. This important indicator has struggled, with just one gain in 2016.
The US dollar was broadly lower on Friday, following an unexpectedly soft US GDP report. The euro took advantage and gained about 100 points. US Preliminary GDP for the second quarter was projected at 2.6%, but posted a much smaller gain of 1.6%. The soft reading not only pushed the dollar lower, but has dampened enthusiasm regarding a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which last week stayed on the sidelines yet again.
On Monday, FOMC William Dudley, a close ally of Janet Yellen, said that the Brexit fallout posed a risk to the US economy and urged the Fed to proceed with caution before raising interest rates. The US will release wage growth and nonfarm payrolls later in the week, and these key employment numbers will be carefully monitored by the Fed as it mulls over a possible rate hike.
If these releases do not meet expectations, the likelihood of a rate hike in September will sharply decrease.
Tuesday (August 2)
- 7:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Estimate -70.0K. Actual -84.0K
- 9:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.7%
- 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%
- 12:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.3%
- 12:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.3%
- All Day – Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 17.1
Upcoming Key Events
Wednesday (August 2)
- 12:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Estimate 171K
- 14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.0
* Key releases are in bold
*All release times are GMT
EUR/USD for Tuesday, August 2, 2016
EUR/USD August 2 at 12:15 GMT
Open: 1.1160 High: 1.1208 Low: 1.1162 Close: 1.1195
- EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted small gains in the European session
- 1.1150 is providing support
- There is resistance at 1.1278
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.1150, 1.1054, 1.0925 and 1.0821
- Above: 1.1278, 1.1376 and 1.1467
- Current range: 1.1150 to 1.1278
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio remains almost unchanged on Tuesday. Short positions have a strong majority (61%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD continuing to move higher.