EUR/USD – Euro Calm On Light Calendar

EUR/USD has posted small losses in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1273, down 0.19% on the day. On the release front, the eurozone trade surplus widened to EUR 15.6 billion, matching the estimate. In the U.S., the Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to rise to 7.1 and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment is projected to climb to 93.3 points.

Economic activity in the eurozone remains weak, which has weighed on the euro. EUR/USD dipped to 1.1249 on Thursday, its lowest level since mid-November. On Thursday, Germany and the eurozone released fourth quarter GDP data, and the numbers were a disappointment.

German Preliminary GDP was flat at 0.0%, after a decline of 0.2% in the third quarter. The eurozone’s largest economy managed to avoid a technical recession, which is two consecutive declines in quarterly growth. Germany’s manufacturing industry is limping, with factory orders and industry production posting declines in December.

Eurozone Flash GDP remained stuck at 0.2%, shy of the forecast of 0.3%. On an annualized basis, fourth quarter growth was 0.9% in Germany and 1.2% in eurozone, both weaker than the third quarter numbers. If eurozone and German data continues to sag, traders can expect the euro to lose ground in the near term.

In the U.S., consumer data has been dismal in January. Retail sales and core retail sales showed sharp contraction, and these numbers came on the heels of soft inflation indicators. Inflation remains low, despite a solid U.S. economy and strong labor market.

CPI showed no change in January, and has failed to post a gain since November. Core CPI has recorded weak gains of 0.2% for four successive months. On an annualized basis, CPI gained 1.6% in January, the weakest year-over-year gain since mid-2017. The soft inflation numbers were a result of low energy prices, which fell 3.1% in January as oil prices remain under pressure.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (February 15)

  • 4:00 Italian Trade Balance. Estimate 3.47B. Actual 3.66B
  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 15.6B. Actual 15.6B
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 7.1
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.1%
  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.8%
  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.1%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 93.3
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations. Estimate 2.7%
  • Tentative – US Mortgage Delinquencies
  • 4:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 34.5B

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, February 15, 2019

EUR/USD for February 14 at 6:00 EST

Open: 1.1295 High: 1.1297 Low: 1.1272 Close: 1.1273

EUR/USD Technical

S1S2S1R1R2R31.10461.11201.12121.13001.14341.1553

EUR/USD was mostly flat in the Asian session. The pair has shown limited movement in European trade

  • 1.1212 is providing support
  • 1.1300 is a weak line
  • Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
  • Above: 1.1300, 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685

Original post

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