Daily Currency Outlook: USD/JPY And USD/CHF : May 08,2018

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.76; (P) 109.07; (R1) 109.40;

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 110.02 short term top. Below 108.64 minor will bring deeper pull back. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to t 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 107.95) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 104.62 low instead.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9987; (P) 1.0022; (R1) 1.0060;

Upside momentum remains unconvincing in USD/CHF. But with 0.9982 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained trading above 1.0037 will pave the way to 1.0342 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.9982 minor support will indicate short term topping. And, in that case, deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.9932) and below before staging another rise.

USD/CHF 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.9648 resistance turned support holds, even in case of pull back.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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