Daily Currency Outlook: USD/JPY And AUD/USD : August 20,2018

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.20; (P) 110.62; (R1) 110.94;

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. And near term outlook remains unchanged too. The corrective decline from 113.17 might extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will target 112.14 minor resistance first. Break will argue that larger rally is possibly resuming for above 113.17.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7273; (P) 0.7297; (R1) 0.7340;

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.7201 short term bottom is in progress for 0.7346 support turned resistance. Buy upside is expected to be limited there to bring larger decline resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7201 will extend the fall from 0.8135, to 100% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7085.

AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there should now have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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