Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CHF And GBP/USD : October 09,2018

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1459; (P) 1.1494; (R1) 1.1529;

There is no follow through selling in EUR/USD after breaching 1.1463. But still, with 1.1549 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is expected. Current decline from 1.1814 should target a test on 1.1300 low. On the upside, above 1.1549 minor resistance will now indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation. But for now, we’d hold on to the view that correction from 1.1300 has completed at 1.1814. Thus, in that case, we’d expect upside to be limited well below 1.1814 to bring another decline to 1.1300 eventually.


In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1375; (P) 1.1410; (R1) 1.1440;

No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.1361 minor support suggest rejection by 1.1452 resistance. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downsides for retesting 1.1154/98. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1452 resistance should confirm bullish reversal, after drawing strong support from 1.1154/98 zone. In that case, outlook will be turned bullish for 1.1713 resistance next.


In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.


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