Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CHF And GBP/USD : May 18,2018

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9991; (P) 1.0012; (R1) 1.0038;

USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation between 0.9956/1.0056 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 0.9956 will bring deeper pull back. But downside should be contained by trend line support (now at 0.9789) to bring rebound. On the upside, sustained break of 1.0037 will resume recent rise for 1.0342 key resistance next.

USD/CHF 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3470; (P) 1.3519; (R1) 1.3565;

GBP/USD’s consolidation continues in range of 1.3450/3607 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 1.3607 will indicate short term bottoming and bring strong rebound for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3815). On the downside, firm break of 1.3448 will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.2874.

GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish pergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 was almost met. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3815) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

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