Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CHF And GBP/USD : March 28,2018

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9442; (P) 0.9469; (R1) 0.9493;

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. While rebound from 0.9186 might extend higher, we’d expect strong resistance from0.9626 key fibonacci level to limit upside. That’s supported by pergence condition in 4 hour MACD. On the downside, break of 0.9432 support will indicate near term reversal and completion of rebound from 0.9186. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9186 low. However, sustained break of 0.9626 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4068; (P) 1.4156; (R1) 1.4246;

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.4243 temporary top. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.3982 minor support holds. Above 1.4243 will target 1.4345 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519 next. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.3982 will indicate completion of rebound from 1.3711. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.3711.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

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