Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CHF And GBP/USD : August 16,2018

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9914; (P) 0.9949; (R1) 0.9972;

Sideway trading in USD/CHF continues, inside range of 0.9894/9984. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 0.9984 will resume the rebound from 0.9866 to retest 1.0067 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 0.9186. On the downside, below 0.9894 might extend the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 with another falling leg. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound.

USD/CHF 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 fibonacci level will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2660; (P) 1.2700; (R1) 1.2737;

GBP/USD is starting to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But for now, as long as 1.2826 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. Current fall is part of the down trend from 1.4376. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.3362 to 1.2956 from 1.3212 at 1.2555. Though, considering mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2826 will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation.

GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4141). Current downside acceleration argues that it’s possibly resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3212 resistance holds. Retest of 1.1946 should be seen next.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

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