Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CAD And USD/JPY : October 04,2018

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2824; (P) 1.2856; (R1) 1.2903;

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2781 temporary low continues. Outlook stays bearish as long as 1.3081 resistance holds. And another decline is still in favor. On the downside, break of 1.2781 will extend whole decline from 1.3385 to next fibonacci level at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.

USDCAD 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level argues that whole choppy rebound from 1.2061 has completed at 1.3385 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support and possibly below. For now, we’re not seeing fall from 1.3385 as resuming larger down trend from 1.4689 (2015 high) yet. Thus, we’ll look for bottoming signal again below 1.2567.


USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.85; (P) 114.21; (R1) 114.91;

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 114.54 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance. On the downside, break of 113.51 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.


In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.


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