Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CAD And EUR/CHF : September 21,2018

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2882; (P) 1.2908; (R1) 1.2931;

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.2883 so far and breached 1.2886 key support. The decline is deeper than we expected. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 will target 50% retracement at 1.2723 next. On the upside, however, break of 1.3063 minor resistance will indicate complete of the fall from 1.3225. Intraday bias should then be turned back to the upside for this resistance again.


In the bigger picture, strong rebound ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level retains medium term bullishness. That is, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. However, sustained break of 1.2879 will dampen his bullish view and turn focus back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1271; (P) 1.1297; (R1) 1.1320;

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.1342 will reaffirm the case of trend reversal after hitting key support zone of 1.1154/98. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 1.1452 resistance. Break should confirm that whole decline from 1.2004 has completed and target 1.1713 resistance next. In case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 1.1154/98 to bring rebound.


In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1207) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.


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