Daily Currency Outlook: EUR/JPY And GBP/JPY : December 20,2018

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.56; (P) 127.97; (R1) 128.39;

EUR/JPY breached 127.49 support briefly but recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 127.49 support will resume the fall from 130.14 and target 126.63 support first. Break there will then resume the whole decline from 133.12 to 124.08/89 support zone. Overall, consolidation from 126.63 could still extend. But even in case of another strong recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 130.14 resistance holds.


In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) could still resume. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.


GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.46; (P) 142.00; (R1) 142.41;

GBP/JPY drops further today but stays in consolidation above 141.17 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 144.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 141.17 will resume the fall from 149.70 and target 139.29/47 key support zone. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, decisive break of 144.02 will suggest near term reversal. Stronger rally should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 144.73) and above.


In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) could still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.


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