Daily Currency Outlook: EUR/GBP And EUR/AUD : April 16,2018

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8634; (P) 0.8650; (R1) 0.8672;

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral for some consolidations first. While stronger rebound might be seen, recovery should be limited well below 0.8796 resistance to bring another decline. Break of 61.8% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8745 from 0.8967 at 0.8621 will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8407.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5800; (P) 1.5850; (R1) 1.5924;

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.5773 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.6055 minor resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.5773 will target 1.5621 support first. Decisive break there will be another indication of medium term trend reversal. However, break of 1.6059 will turn focus back to 1.6189 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish pergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

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