Daily Currency Outlook: EUR/CHF And EUR/USD : March 12,2018

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1681; (P) 1.1710; (R1) 1.1739;

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.1740 temporary top is extending. As noted before, pull back from 1.1832 is already completed at 1.1445. Further rise will be in favor as long as 1.1630 minor support holds. Above 1.1740 will target a test on 1.1832 high. We’ll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1630 minor support will target 1.1445 low again.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish pergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2273; (P) 1.2303 (R1) 1.2334;

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.2268 minor support. On the downside, break of 1.2268 will argue that fall from 1.2555 is likely resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2154 support and below. On the upside, above 1.2445will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2555 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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