Daily Currency Outlook: EUR/AUD And EUR/GBP : August 17,2018

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5624; (P) 1.5669; (R1) 1.5711;

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.5725 will extend the rebound form 1.5578 to retest 1.5888 high. On the downside, though, below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507.


In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.


EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8935; (P) 0.8948; (R1) 0.8963;

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as it’s bounded in consolidation from 0.9030. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But downside should contained by 0.8854 support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.9043 will pave the way to retest 0.9305 key resistance. However, sustained break of 0.8854 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/GBP 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). The corrective structure of the fall from 0.9305 to 0.8620 is raising the chance that rise from 0.8312 to 0.9305 is an impulsive move. But we’re not too confident on it yet. In any case, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

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