Daily Currency Outlook: AUD/USD And USD/JPY : July 25,2018

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7373; (P) 0.7403; (R1) 0.7447;

AUD/USD continues to gyrate in range of 0.7309/7483 as consolidation extends. Intraday bias stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Above 0.7483 will bring stronger rebound. But in that case, upside should below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.93; (P) 111.23; (R1) 111.49;

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 110.74 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 110.74 will extend the correction from 113.17 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90. But downside should be contained there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 113.17 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we’d expect more consolidation in near term first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

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