Daily Currency Outlook: AUD/USD And EUR/CHF : July 16,2018

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7387; (P) 0.7406; (R1) 0.7444;

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. The consolidation from 0.7309 could extend further and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But after all, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7359 will target 0.7309 support first. Sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1673; (P) 1.1691; (R1) 1.1725;

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Further rise would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760. However, as rebound from 1.1366 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 1.2004, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1760 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.1618 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1478 support and below. However, sustained trading above 1.1760 will pave the way to retest 1.2004 high next.

EUR/CHF 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish pergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. Hence, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.

EUR/CHF Daily Chart

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