Could The Market Be Setting Up For A Disappointment To The Downside?

It might be Monday morning in Asia, but all eyes are already focused firmly on Thursday’s FOMC meeting in Washington DC.

Exactly 1 month ago on August 19, it turns out we were also looking at the USD chart and had this to say as price sat at higher time frame support.

“Either way, anything long USD if the Fed flipped proper hawkish would be the type of trade that dreams are made of…”

Well zooming forward the 31 days to today’s chart, we can see that price gave us that bounce after all.

USD Daily:

USDX Daily Chart

From there, we’ve seen the majors start to slowly pull back and this theme is something that we’ll continue to explore throughout the week into Thursday’s meeting.

Now, with the market obviously starting to price in the possibility of a September hike, I pose the next question: could the market be setting up for a major disappointment to the downside?

Maybe major isn’t the correct adjective to use here, but for me the risk of the biggest move lays to the downside in USD if the Fed does as it is expected to do and stays on hold.

The markets definitely seem to be getting a little too far ahead of themselves for my liking and there could be opportunity in positioning yourself in this direction heading into Thursday’s FOMC meeting.

Have a fantastic week!

On the Calendar Monday: JPY Bank Holiday: Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Respect-for-the-Aged Day.

As I hit publish on this blog, the S&P 500 has started to rip higher, with the inversely correlated Japanese yen copping a hammering. Little strange to have such a flurry on the open with no obvious catalyst, but hey that’s markets!

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