EUR and USD exchanged the courtesy and disappointed the markets with weak statistics. The investors are ‘reading tea leaves’ trying to guess what will have a bigger impact on the EUR/USD: Trump’s tax cut reform or the debt ceiling. The biggest central banks start thinking about the pair’s path in 2018.
US ISM Manufacturing Index receded from the area of 12-years highs, and the US trade deficit rose to the 9-months highs in October. So, there are some reasons to doubt that US GDP will be able to repeat the last month’s success of 3% growth. it’s curious that the common currency could not use its opponent’s weakness because of its own problems: disappointing retail sales data and the weaker business activity in the region.
On Friday, US will publish its Nonfarm Payrolls data. This survey used to be a very important one, but it has lost its meaning recently. Be that as it may, considering the stalemate situation, the figures matter. The Fed’s decision of a rate hike may depend on what we see on Friday.
EUR is bullish long-term, but the problem is it may use its ‘trump card’ no earlier than in the second or in the third quarter of 2018, when the ECB starts to scale back quantitative easing, and the markets start to price it in.
If Friday’s data disappoints, which is quite possible, EUR/USD may resume the growth, and the current levels seem a good opportunity for buying with the target at 1.1870. Another scenario is a medium-term consolidation.