Aussie Moves Lower, Overall Bullish Dollar

The start of the week was not quite as I had envisioned, particularly the break lower in USD/JPY. This has generated some problems but in the early stages in the Asian centers, we are likely to see a little bit higher in the dollar and then a final dollar low. This should see GBP/USD making a new high while USD/JPY needs a “bit up” and a “bit down” before we begin to see stronger gains.

I was very wary about EUR/USD as I worked through the development over the weekend because Friday’s high was just 1 pip below the extreme. This needs to remain capping to then see losses resume. That we have seen so many broad swings has been really difficult to work through. If there is a break above the upside limit then it’s going to be a little rough.

USD/CHF has been rather slow – but seeing a pullback lower and today it should move back higher to the targets I have suggested.

EUR/JPY is another tale of a 5-wave move. At the start of the move, we shall always see a 5-wave move. So what if it’s a single bar? Then we’d have to go down to the 1-minute bars. Ideally, we should go down to the tick level but at that stage, it takes a long time to work through it all. That has occurred and will still need losses by the end of the day.

From Friday’s Aussie high we saw a gap lower and a pullback. It could form an expanded flat higher or just a pullback for further losses. Either way, it’s going lower.

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