AUD Offered As Carry Trades Retreat

The EUR/USD consolidated losses within 1.0736/1.0771 in Asia. Trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably negative for a successful re-test of 1.0710 (Jan 4th low), before extending the downtrend toward 1.0524 (Dec 2rd, 2116 low). The intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.0848 (minor 23.6% retracement in Nov 9th to Nov 15th sell-off), 1.0875 (100-hour moving average, 1.0934 (major 38.2%), 1.0973 (200-hour moving average), before 1.1003 (50% level), max 1.1052 (50-day moving averages).

The USD/JPY extended gains to 108.55, as the 10-year JGB yield legged up to 0% for the first time since Sep 21st. A further yen depreciation could be expected with next critical target set at 110.00 level. Intra-day supports are eyed at 106.81 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 15th rise), before 105.74 (major 38.2% retracement) and 105.15 (200-day moving average).

The GBP/USD is set for a deeper correction to 1.2350 for a head-and-shoulders formation following last Friday’s peak at 1.2673. The daily MACD has flattened, preventing GBP-longs from picking up enough momentum for a renewed attempt to 1.2840 (100-day moving average).

The AUD/USD remains under pressure, as higher global yields continue denting the appetite in carry trades. Sellers are touted at 0.7583 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 8th to Nov 14th decline), before 0.7600 (100.hour moving average), for a further extension of weakness toward 0.7440/0.7420 mid-term resistance.

Gold is showing signs of recovery, the 50-day moving average $1230 is on the radar before a further correction to $1241 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 14th sell-off). Key support is presumed at $1210/1200, before considering a further slide to $1180.

The WTI trades a touch below the $45 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Nov 9th fall / 200-hour moving average). Clearing the $45 offers could pave the way toward $46.38 (major 38.2% retrace) and $47.50 (50% level), which are expected to shelter offers on little conviction about the OPEC taking action on production before the end of this month.

This entry was posted in Investing and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.
0 0 votes
Notify of
0 评论
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments