FX Uncertainty Reigns As Dollar Revives; Will It Last?

The uptick in rising US yields is underpinning USDJPY, but it was the gains in equities as all three major U.S. stock indexes clocked in all-time closing highs that provided the major overnight sentiment gauge. Ultimately this buoyant risk sentiment should be cheered, but FX traders remain in the Nervous Nellie camp waiting for the next chaotic patch given the evolving narratives. A word of caution to those enjoying this unexpected sea of tranquillity, the next few weeks and months come with significant risk

It’s incredible just how quickly the sentiment around the USD has changed this week as deeply ingrained attitudes to fade the dollar rallies has given way to traders awaiting a deeper position squeeze on short dollar positioning. But from my seat, however, it feels like the bulk of the squeeze has occurred and that this current resounding risk rally is stoking the USDJPY fires as CrossJPY continues to race higher. But indeed, the large short dollar positions into the weekend and the surging US yields on Monday provided the primary drivers behind this remarkable USD revival.

However, the long dollar position is not without considerable risk as Fed market positioning suggests this dollar revival is little more than a respite.Tepid wage and inflation numbers are posing a conundrum for the Fed and of course, the dollar will remain an endangered species as dealers await the next Trump administration gaff.

One issue that is being discussed in market circles is that as far as US economic data is concerned, the Hurricane Effect may give rise for the Feds to look through inflation data as the storm surges have likely stretched the Fed’s window to dismiss data.

The only thing that appears certain today is uncertainty itself.


In the absence of any euro-particular set of drivers and in lieu of the current dollar correction, the shooting star reversal is not all that surprising. But despite the sell-off from massively overbought levels above 1.2000 euro bulls are not giving up the game quickly and remain firm buyers on dips


From here, all roads lead to the US CPI on Thursday, which has been a key driver of dollar sentiment all year. On a solid print, the dollar rally extends to 111.25, but on a wrong impression we’re quickly back to the 109’s as there should be a massive wave of USD selling across the board.

Chinese Yuan

After all that has been said and done the logical explanation for the Reserve Requirement shift was that the PBoC are concerned about the pace of depreciation of USD/CNY. The authorities intend to create more two way flows as hedgers will now come back to cover USD exposures as the authorities hope that more price stability will naturally occur. But from my seat, I think this recent move will provide an excellent opportunity to increase RMB exposure as all things China continues to look rosy

EM Asia

USD/Asia has been stuck in a range bound rut despite general USD strength in the market. The market positioning remains relatively light on either side of the coin after Friday’s rally and subsequent correction Monday. But so far the Asia EM currencies have been somewhat immune to the recent USD rally as risk appetite is buttressing local sentiment.

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